One of my favorite Jim Croce classics is an old R&B hit, especially with its timeless chorus warning the unwary:

You don't tug on superman's cape

You don't spit into the wind

You don't pull the mask off that old lone ranger

And you don’t mess around with Jim

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Jx-B5wbKOQ

Today that warning applies with a sharp timeliness to Hezbollah, Hamas and the ayatollahs. Whether or not they recall the melody, they are learning the hard way NOT to mess around with the Mossad. What is endlessly fascinating to this gray-haired one-time intelligence officer is the sheer virtuosity of Mossad. Most Americans can’t even imagine an agency compelled to respond to daily missile and drone attacks coming from every map quadrant. Even so, Mossad was ruthless enough to plan and execute a counter-attack using 2800 pagers randomly finding their way into the hip-pockets of their most determined adversaries! As Middle East Forum aptly noted, “the attack was unique: The perpetrators managed to identify Hezbollah’s communication systems, monitor them, and then execute a timed detonation of thousands of pagers—in effect, turning Hezbollah’s own equipment against the group. Such an action requires a combination of high-quality intelligence, deep penetration and control over advanced communication systems.”  https://www.meforum.org/middle-east-forum-observer/israel-sends-a-message-of-strength-and-deterrence

As if that were not enough, Mossad had even arranged a delayed second-strike, evident on Wednesday at the Beirut funerals of those killed in the attacks 24 hours earlier. According to Hezbollah TV, there were “explosions in multiple areas of Lebanon, and a Hezbollah official told The Associated Press that walkie-talkies used by the group exploded as part of blasts heard in Beirut. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.” https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/sep/18/walkie-talkies-explode-at-beirut-funeral-forhezbo/ In short: Hezbollah and their allies were totally flummoxed by the dual attacks, unable even to control media acting like a battle damage assessment team for Mossad.

 As Free Press columnist Eli Lake correctly noted, “This has been a pattern” going all the way back to the 2009 insertion of the infamous Stuxnet virus into Iranian centrifuges. The Mossad is also believed to have killed Iranian nuclear scientists. In 2018 they even raided a Tehran warehouse used to store schematics and secret diagrams of the Iranian nuclear program. According to former CIA Analyst, Reuel Mark Gerecht, “(The) Israelis have tended to look at strategy as an accumulation of tactical victories…(Instead) Israel’s tactical brilliance is no substitute for serious hard power and military interventions.”

Of course, this latest war in the shadows, for all its intrigue and fascination, may be close to running its course. How far can you go when diplomats and senior operatives are suddenly taken off the chessboard, expended as if they were mere pawns? As one reader wrote in to The Times of Israel, “You wouldn’t think he’d answer if the return address was Kah-BOOM.” And Iran is still smarting from its humiliation back in July when Mossad somehow managed to “sneak a bomb inside a guest house in the capital city of their mortal enemy,” killing a high-ranking Hamas political leader. under their very red noses. https://www.thefp.com/p/hezbollahs-exploding-pagers-israel-war-against-iran/

Perhaps with a sharper understanding that Israel had again demonstrated an in-your-face capability for which Iran had no answer, threats of revenge remained just that. But the countdown toward a larger and more decisive exchange continues every day, especially given the worrying possibility that Iran may finally be able to achieve its long-cherished nuclear ambitions. While discussing his new book on CSPAN, LTG H.R. McMaster recently criticized the Biden administration for failing to impose higher costs on Iran after they fired over 300 missiles and drones in a direct attack on the Jewish state. Rather than President Biden simply advising Israel to “take the win,” General McMaster suggested that the US might well have applied military force to Iran, including devastating attacks on its military, air and naval forces, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.   

(LTG H.R McMaster, CSPAN Booknotes, “At War With Ourselves,” September 15, 2024).   

The failure of either President Biden or Kamala Harris to provide more aggressive backing for Israel inevitably increases the odds that, on one side or the other of the nuclear threshold, events may eventually out-run our ability to achieve a satisfactory outcome: not a resolution of course but merely an unsatisfactory conclusion with the fearsome prospect of mega-deaths. For her part, Vice President Harris seems unable to do more than deplore the use of senseless violence while urging both parties to arrange a cease-fire.

Sorry, Madame Vice President but you lack any strategic understanding of the complexities involved – and no sense whatever that time is no longer on your side.

Colonel (Ret) Ken Allard is a former West Point professor, Dean of the National War College and NBC News military analyst.